{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"ai-model-race","title":"The AI model race record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"ai","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"ai\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"The AI model race\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: china — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it.","candidatesConsidered":["ai","anthropic","china","deepseek","openai"],"alsoDefensible":["anthropic","deepseek","openai"],"rejected":["china"],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-22","generatedAt":"2026-08-22T23:27:49.197705+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/ai-model-race and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/ai-model-race so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"ai\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 4 attributable rows sampled for \"ai\", 1 served, 3 withheld as not shown to be about \"The AI model race\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":4,"served":1,"withheldNotEventRelevant":3,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["model","curated","benchmark","anthropic","leapfrog","chatgpt","claude","fable","deepseek","frontier","gemini","gpt","large","language","release","openai","weights"],"questionSet":["announces","achieved","agi","december","best","end","launch","consumer","hardware","product","released","debut","score","least","1500"]},"items":[{"title":"SpaceX Just Closed the Biggest AI Startup Acquisition Ever — And Cursor Now Has the World's Largest GPU Fleet - Times Tabloid","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxNeG8tRVhJa2EtdXNpdERaTkx3MkdWbWQtSDdEME84T0dBMlVjX0JtRXdXVTZRVjk0X1lYeFZJZFNOaVdLRkMyNUhfcDdpMEtiTE1pNTBheGg3NTk1dHd1Mml2WHBsN2xYRnZEOXk3WWd5MUNYZjBvaW1uTUEycWlkSnlJVHRrcWFwTE9zVw?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","eventTerms":["large"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":5420,"outlets":635,"activeDays":163,"firstSeen":"2026-03-03","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":null,"lastSeenStatus":"withheld-future-dated","lastSeenNote":"unmeasured — the lastSeen stamp on this subject read 2026-11-01, which is after today (2026-08-23). A document we have not reached yet cannot be one we have seen, so the stamp is withheld rather than clamped: a clamped date would be a fabricated observation. The cause is a forward-dated publisher field (a grant's period-of-performance start, a journal's ahead-of-print issue date) reaching our \"when we saw it\" axis. This is neither a real date nor a measured zero.","homeDomains":["ai_investing"],"asserts":null,"assertionCoverage":0.178,"movesWith":[{"name":"anthropic","together":827,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"],"verbs":{"acquisition":9}},{"name":"openai","together":795,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"],"verbs":{"acquisition":3}},{"name":"nvidia","together":351,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"china","together":573,"verbs":{"meeting-visit":6,"sanction-trade":4}},{"name":"google","together":571},{"name":"microsoft","together":333},{"name":"aug","together":307},{"name":"meta","together":295}],"movesWithLabels":["anthropic","openai","nvidia","china","google","microsoft","aug","meta"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":28,"reading":"Our coverage of The AI model race is 28% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":105,"eventMentions":18434,"periods":[{"period":"2028","mentions":7},{"period":"2027-12","mentions":836},{"period":"2027-11","mentions":3},{"period":"2027-10","mentions":3},{"period":"2027-09","mentions":38},{"period":"2027-08","mentions":3},{"period":"2027-07","mentions":3},{"period":"2027-06","mentions":73}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"ai\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"The AI model race","slug":"ai-model-race","questionCount":82,"questions":["OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?","Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?","Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?","Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?"],"mentions":18434,"firstSeen":"2026-03-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-22","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"ai\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"The AI model race\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: china — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-19T15:07:45.991325+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-17T15:02:47.105972+00:00"}]}}}