{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"diplomacy-nato","title":"The Diplomacy: NATO record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"nato","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"nato\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Diplomacy: NATO\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["nato"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-28","generatedAt":"2026-08-28T02:03:32.613057+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/diplomacy-nato and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/diplomacy-nato so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"nato\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 5 attributable rows for \"nato\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Diplomacy: NATO\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":5,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":5,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["diplomacy"],"questionSet":["vance","attend","summit","marco","rubio"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":155,"outlets":51,"activeDays":20,"firstSeen":"2026-05-18","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-21","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["europe_politics","turkey"],"asserts":{"utterance":22,"military-action":20,"meeting-visit":8,"launch-release":3,"election":3,"ceasefire-deal":2},"assertionCoverage":0.381,"movesWith":[{"name":"israel","together":58,"sharedDomains":["turkey"]},{"name":"turkish","together":52,"sharedDomains":["turkey"]},{"name":"ukraine","together":49,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"turkey","together":46,"sharedDomains":["turkey"]},{"name":"aug","together":34,"sharedDomains":["turkey"]},{"name":"iran","together":65},{"name":"russia","together":63},{"name":"trump","together":56}],"movesWithLabels":["israel","turkish","ukraine","turkey","aug","iran","russia","trump"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":150,"reading":"Our coverage of Diplomacy: NATO is 150% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":104,"eventMentions":113,"periods":[{"period":"2026","mentions":113}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":30,"change24hPct":5.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-27","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nato-downs-another-russian-drone-byptptpt-20260726214930818","source":"Polymarket (us-politics)","probabilityPct":100,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-22","capturedAt":"2026-08-08","deadline":"2026-08-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Diplomacy: NATO","slug":"diplomacy-nato","questionCount":2,"questions":["Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit?","Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit?"],"mentions":113,"firstSeen":"2026-06-03","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-07-10","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-28","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"nato\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Diplomacy: NATO\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-27T18:38:35.269429+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-21T15:10:33.488127+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-27T18:38:35.269429+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-21T15:10:33.488127+00:00"}]}}}