{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane","title":"The Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-17","generatedAt":"2026-08-17T15:02:47.105972+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"Virgin Atlantic nennt neuen Airbus A330 Neo Champagne Supernova","url":"https://www.aerotelegraph.com/ticker/virgin-atlantic-nennt-neuen-airbus-a330-neo-champagne-supernova/j8p807e","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"El Niño keeps Atlantic hurricane activity unusually quiet - fpren.org","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxONUdoVEFFZ0NxZlJYaGp2QzhlWHhORGcybmFrTE5VQWlCaGFDdHpQXzVsU056enZzWHhNbE9USVIwRkhsZmJDUzdlVFZ1R2lCSW1ZeFN0VDJtVzQyc0Y1NHJFa2Izb1ZhSWxRcWFoQUNETXVrUlBsXy1xdTN4NTFkVzRsVEN4bGo3N2ZpaFRhTTN0UFp6?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"As Lala Lashes Hawaii, the Atlantic Hurricane Season Remains Calm. So Far. - The New York Times","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxQOWdkUXlrUTItcnlKY3JxYTVDQkc5T2wtU05UVHRFRVhROWg3VmxMQ0Q3OC03eWo3bTdpRjhiMXA5dHIxR2w0WDlKVjhYdlNackUta2VoakdjWWExQjJZLVlpTlB1QTd6clFWU3F3YS1jMmhHZVNDVUpHUk1MRDBmRg?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Atlantic hurricane season tracker: Cristobal is gone, and the two systems behind it are fading - Yahoo","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi6wFBVV95cUxQeHBDWkdJSVpsSW9rMHBBZ1VlRTUwVng4ZDRRbTYyaDh3Z1dQWXBCcVJ2S0hGMnc1S19Ccl9yUGcxbkRwU1h4OTJQVG9zWERxQ0Fiak05ZG9tTEl2ZVZtTF9Mamc3SFhEZzdYS1RlM2ttd0NlMGZjUmE4aktLMG8tM0dZRkZvT3M4TGF4UmtuSmNCei1mNno4ZGd6YTNyOFRUcGh3V3oxNGh3aVV1Vks4eExuRVNGajdidzBDQ0tVMFk3TFEwaFFiNjRfT3ZVVWo4c0VQcUxSdFk4U3IzWWxmeno2WG1UN3gtWlJV?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Hurricane center stops tracking Atlantic systems, says no chance to develop - Orlando Sentinel","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPVlRSRWRKcXNEa0g0QTViQklhSXQ3NVBpU3FtdkNWUFluVVhkdWNIeFUySmkxSWFla2dtNEtIbkQ0NUVfOHBtZEpvV2xBM2hHc3hkZy1Gd09BTzg2SGRSZkkyeWNqN2dqcDVKZnI4ZjB5SW85MFZ1SUZMeXNDWlRuV0JsZUJHX0Z0ZGt2MUVGM0pCMUVab1VkdTNqOHZYQ2FYNEpNMTRFcm8xQ2xCWkg1QUl5UQ?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":239,"outlets":76,"activeDays":44,"firstSeen":"2026-03-18","lastSeen":"2026-08-16","homeDomains":["extreme_weather"],"asserts":{"disaster":76,"launch-release":12,"utterance":5,"acquisition":5,"meeting-visit":3,"sports-outcome":2},"assertionCoverage":0.46,"movesWith":[{"label":"hurricane","n":90,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"label":"noaa","n":34,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"ai","n":30,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"earthquake","n":25,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"climate","n":22,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"aug","n":21,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"china","n":20,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"trump","n":19,"sharedDomains":[]}],"provenance":"observed"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"new","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":1,"eventMentions":30,"periods":[{"period":"2026-08","mentions":5},{"period":"2026","mentions":25}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"Will there be 7+ hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-hurricanes-will-form-during-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-in-2026-20260723192532700","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":10,"change24hPct":-46.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-25","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-first-hurricane-form-in-the-atlantic-in-2026-20260812150457428","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":71,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-17","capturedAt":"2026-08-17","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane","slug":"disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane","questionCount":16,"questions":["Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 13 and August 16, 2026?","Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?","Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?","Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Cristobal?","Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Dolly?","Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Edouard?"],"mentions":30,"firstSeen":"2026-07-24","lastSeen":"2026-08-13"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-17","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"new","at":"2026-08-17T15:02:47.105972+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-17T13:26:31.263131+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-17T15:02:47.105972+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-17T13:26:31.263131+00:00"}]}}}