{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"disaster-event-earthquake","title":"The Disaster: Earthquake record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"earthquake","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"earthquake\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Earthquake\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["earthquake"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"disaster"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-22","generatedAt":"2026-08-22T23:27:49.197705+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/disaster-event-earthquake and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-earthquake so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"earthquake\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"subject-not-in-tracked-entity-set","note":"unmeasured — \"earthquake\" is this record's subject, but it is not in the current tracked-entity set, so we hold no sampled coverage to attribute. This is not a measured zero.","sampledForSubject":0,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":0,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["disaster"],"questionSet":["above","magnitude","exactly","higher","worldwide","may"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":896,"outlets":52,"activeDays":127,"firstSeen":"2026-04-06","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":null,"lastSeenStatus":"withheld-future-dated","lastSeenNote":"unmeasured — the lastSeen stamp on this subject read 2026-09-01, which is after today (2026-08-23). A document we have not reached yet cannot be one we have seen, so the stamp is withheld rather than clamped: a clamped date would be a fabricated observation. The cause is a forward-dated publisher field (a grant's period-of-performance start, a journal's ahead-of-print issue date) reaching our \"when we saw it\" axis. This is neither a real date nor a measured zero.","homeDomains":["geophysical"],"asserts":{"disaster":815,"utterance":5,"acquisition":3,"regulatory-approval":3,"military-action":1,"sports-outcome":1},"assertionCoverage":0.925,"movesWith":[{"name":"indonesia","together":114,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"philippines","together":90,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"papua new guinea","together":33,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"tonga","together":32,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"japan","together":68},{"name":"fiji","together":20,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"vanuatu","together":20,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"russia","together":42}],"movesWithLabels":["indonesia","philippines","papua new guinea","tonga","japan","fiji","vanuatu","russia"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":630,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":129},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":6},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":6},{"period":"2026","mentions":489}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"subject-not-in-tracked-entity-set","rowsNote":"unmeasured — \"earthquake\" is this record's subject, but it is not in the current tracked-entity set, so we hold no sampled coverage to attribute. This is not a measured zero.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Disaster: Earthquake","slug":"disaster-event-earthquake","questionCount":15,"questions":["9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?","Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?","Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?","Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?"],"mentions":630,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":null,"lastSeenStatus":"withheld-future-dated","stampNote":"unmeasured — the lastSeen stamp on this subject read 2026-09-01, which is after today (2026-08-23). A document we have not reached yet cannot be one we have seen, so the stamp is withheld rather than clamped: a clamped date would be a fabricated observation. The cause is a forward-dated publisher field (a grant's period-of-performance start, a journal's ahead-of-print issue date) reaching our \"when we saw it\" axis. This is neither a real date nor a measured zero."}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-22","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"earthquake\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Earthquake\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"none-recorded","note":"Measured zero: the ledger holds no coverage-state transition for \"earthquake\". We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]}}}