{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"economic-indicator-gdp","title":"The Economic indicator: GDP record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"gdp","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"gdp\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Economic indicator: GDP\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: japan — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it.","candidatesConsidered":["gdp","japan"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["japan"],"actionClass":"econ-release"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-22","generatedAt":"2026-08-22T23:27:49.197705+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/economic-indicator-gdp and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/economic-indicator-gdp so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"gdp\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"subject-not-in-tracked-entity-set","note":"unmeasured — \"gdp\" is this record's subject, but it is not in the current tracked-entity set, so we hold no sampled coverage to attribute. This is not a measured zero.","sampledForSubject":0,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":0,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["economic","indicator"],"questionSet":["south","korea","mexico","between","greater","japan","annualized"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":339,"outlets":104,"activeDays":29,"firstSeen":"2026-05-02","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-21","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["india_south_asia"],"asserts":{"econ-release":85,"utterance":13,"launch-release":11,"meeting-visit":6,"sanction-trade":5,"acquisition":3},"assertionCoverage":0.395,"movesWith":[{"name":"india","together":71,"sharedDomains":["india_south_asia"]},{"name":"ai","together":65},{"name":"inflation","together":48},{"name":"oil","together":42},{"name":"united states","together":38},{"name":"japan","together":37},{"name":"aug","together":36},{"name":"china","together":35}],"movesWithLabels":["india","ai","inflation","oil","united states","japan","aug","china"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":2211,"periods":[{"period":"2026-08","mentions":625},{"period":"2026","mentions":1586}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"subject-not-in-tracked-entity-set","rowsNote":"unmeasured — \"gdp\" is this record's subject, but it is not in the current tracked-entity set, so we hold no sampled coverage to attribute. This is not a measured zero.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Economic indicator: GDP","slug":"economic-indicator-gdp","questionCount":24,"questions":["Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 2.0%?","Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?","Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%?","Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?","Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be less than -2.4%?"],"mentions":2211,"firstSeen":"2026-05-26","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-15","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-22","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"gdp\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Economic indicator: GDP\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: japan — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-18T15:06:56.513447+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-16T14:55:51.532509+00:00"}]}}}