{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-democratic-party-illinois","title":"The Election: Democratic Party & Illinois record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"illinois","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"illinois\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Democratic Party & Illinois\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: senate — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it.","candidatesConsidered":["democratic party","illinois","senate"],"alsoDefensible":["democratic party"],"rejected":["senate"],"actionClass":"election"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-29","generatedAt":"2026-08-29T16:01:54.942135+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-democratic-party-illinois and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/election-democratic-party-illinois so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"illinois\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 4 attributable rows for \"illinois\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Election: Democratic Party & Illinois\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":4,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":4,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["election","democratic","party"],"questionSet":["candidate","senate","gubernatorial"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":241,"outlets":92,"activeDays":40,"firstSeen":"2026-04-03","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-29","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["disaster"],"asserts":{"disaster":70,"legal-ruling":7,"acquisition":7,"sports-outcome":7,"election":4,"funding-round":3},"assertionCoverage":0.456,"movesWith":[{"name":"noaa","together":69,"sharedDomains":["disaster"]},{"name":"lincoln","together":30,"sharedDomains":["disaster"]},{"name":"mason","together":16,"sharedDomains":["disaster"]},{"name":"ai","together":33},{"name":"havana","together":15,"sharedDomains":["disaster"]},{"name":"aug","together":22},{"name":"trump","together":21},{"name":"united states","together":16}],"movesWithLabels":["noaa","lincoln","mason","ai","havana","aug","trump","united states"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":30,"periods":[{"period":"2026","mentions":30}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"illinois\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Democratic Party & Illinois","slug":"election-democratic-party-illinois","questionCount":12,"questions":["Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 0%-5%?","Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 35% or more?","Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election by 0%-5%?"],"mentions":30,"firstSeen":"2026-08-05","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-07","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-29","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"illinois\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Democratic Party & Illinois\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: senate — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-25T15:15:51.750926+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-23T15:05:52.843966+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-25T15:15:51.750926+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-23T15:05:52.843966+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-26T15:13:20.917747+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-25T15:15:51.750926+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-27T18:38:35.269429+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-26T15:13:20.917747+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-08-29T16:01:54.942135+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-27T18:38:35.269429+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-08-29T16:01:54.942135+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-27T18:38:35.269429+00:00"}]}}}