{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-germany","title":"The Election: Germany record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"germany","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"germany\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Germany\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["germany"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"election"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-30","generatedAt":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-germany and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/election-germany so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"germany\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 11 attributable rows for \"germany\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Election: Germany\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":11,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":11,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["election"],"questionSet":["afd","seats","state","elections","september","berlin","turnout","down","under","linke","votes","cdu"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":967,"outlets":215,"activeDays":50,"firstSeen":"2026-03-31","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-30","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["europe_politics"],"asserts":null,"assertionCoverage":0.187,"movesWith":[{"name":"france","together":191,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"european union","together":161,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":2}},{"name":"spanish","together":110,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"italy","together":109,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"netherlands","together":100,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"china","together":145,"verbs":{"sanction-trade":2}},{"name":"swiss","together":142},{"name":"united kingdom","together":139}],"movesWithLabels":["france","european union","spanish","italy","netherlands","china","swiss","united kingdom"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"new","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":1,"eventMentions":48,"periods":[{"period":"2026-09","mentions":4},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":12},{"period":"2026","mentions":32}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/germany-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":16,"change24hPct":-34,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-02","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Germany","slug":"election-germany","questionCount":28,"questions":["Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026?","Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?","Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?","Berlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?","Berlin State Election: Linke Over/Under 20%?","Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or Grüne?"],"mentions":48,"firstSeen":"2026-07-17","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-30","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"germany\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Germany\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"new","at":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T04:58:44.769155+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T04:58:44.769155+00:00"}]}}}