{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-hamilton","title":"The Election: Hamilton record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hamilton","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"hamilton\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Hamilton\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["hamilton"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"election"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-21","generatedAt":"2026-08-21T16:07:00.002085+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-hamilton and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/election-hamilton so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it.","status":"subject-not-in-tracked-entity-set","note":"unmeasured — \"hamilton\" is this record's subject, but it is not in the current tracked-entity set, so we hold no sampled coverage to attribute. This is not a measured zero.","items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":54,"outlets":26,"activeDays":17,"firstSeen":"2010-10-01","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-20","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["weather_climate"],"asserts":{"disaster":5,"launch-release":2,"regulatory-approval":2,"acquisition":1,"sports-outcome":1},"assertionCoverage":0.204,"movesWith":[{"name":"noaa","together":18,"sharedDomains":["weather_climate"]}],"movesWithLabels":["noaa"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":42,"periods":[{"period":"2026","mentions":42}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"subject-not-in-tracked-entity-set","rowsNote":"unmeasured — \"hamilton\" is this record's subject, but it is not in the current tracked-entity set, so we hold no sampled coverage to attribute. This is not a measured zero.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Hamilton","slug":"election-hamilton","questionCount":12,"questions":["Will Andrea Horwath win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election?","Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?"],"mentions":42,"firstSeen":"2026-08-11","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-20","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-21","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"hamilton\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Hamilton\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"none-recorded","note":"Measured zero: the ledger holds no coverage-state transition for \"hamilton\". We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]}}}