{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-israel","title":"The Election: Israel record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"israel","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"israel\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Israel\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["israel"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"election"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-22","generatedAt":"2026-08-22T23:27:49.197705+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-israel and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/election-israel so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"israel\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 5 attributable rows sampled for \"israel\", 1 served, 4 withheld as not shown to be about \"Election: Israel\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":5,"served":1,"withheldNotEventRelevant":4,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["election"],"questionSet":["exactly","legislative","occur","government","formed","jos","gonz","lez","colima","governor","likud","seats"]},"items":[{"title":"California lawmaker overcomes pro-Israel spending to win special election","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/22/california-lawmaker-overcomes-pro-israel-spending-to-win-special-election?traffic_source=rss","eventTerms":["election"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":938,"outlets":136,"activeDays":49,"firstSeen":"2026-03-30","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["middle_east","turkey"],"asserts":{"utterance":118,"military-action":111,"ceasefire-deal":89,"meeting-visit":39,"sanction-trade":21,"election":19},"assertionCoverage":0.461,"movesWith":[{"name":"gaza","together":415,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":80,"meeting-visit":16,"sanction-trade":2}},{"name":"iran","together":384,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"netanyahu","together":167,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":4,"meeting-visit":3}},{"name":"prime minister benjamin","together":135,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"]},{"name":"aug","together":197,"sharedDomains":["turkey"]},{"name":"hormuz","together":181,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"middle east","together":166,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"turkey","together":154,"sharedDomains":["turkey"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":4}}],"movesWithLabels":["gaza","iran","netanyahu","prime minister benjamin","aug","hormuz","middle east","turkey"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":17,"reading":"Our coverage of Election: Israel is 17% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":101,"eventMentions":595,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":38},{"period":"2026","mentions":557}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"israel\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Israel","slug":"election-israel","questionCount":13,"questions":["Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?","Will José Israel González win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?","Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?"],"mentions":595,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-06","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-22","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"israel\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Israel\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-18T15:06:56.513447+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-15T14:57:13.688622+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-21T15:10:33.488127+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-18T15:06:56.513447+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-22T15:04:34.290610+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-21T15:10:33.488127+00:00"}]}}}