{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-lebanon","title":"The Election: Lebanon record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-16","generatedAt":"2026-08-16T14:55:51.532509+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-lebanon and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/election-lebanon so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":133,"outlets":27,"activeDays":19,"firstSeen":"2026-04-07","lastSeen":"2026-08-15","homeDomains":["middle_east","turkey","iran_regime"],"asserts":{"utterance":33,"military-action":15,"ceasefire-deal":4,"meeting-visit":3,"election":2,"legal-ruling":2},"assertionCoverage":0.466,"movesWith":[{"label":"israel","n":105,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"]},{"label":"iran","n":85,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"label":"gaza","n":41,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"]},{"label":"hormuz","n":38,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"label":"pakistan","n":33,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east","turkey"]},{"label":"saudi arabia","n":31,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east","turkey"]},{"label":"hezbollah","n":29,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"]},{"label":"trump","n":44,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]}],"provenance":"observed"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"new","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":1,"eventMentions":22,"periods":[{"period":"2026","mentions":22}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260810145737299","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":6,"change24hPct":-58,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-12","deadline":"2026-08-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Lebanon","slug":"election-lebanon","questionCount":12,"questions":["Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"],"mentions":22,"firstSeen":"2026-07-03","lastSeen":"2026-07-03"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-16","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"new","at":"2026-08-16T14:55:51.532509+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-16T13:20:53.059902+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-16T14:55:51.532509+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-16T13:20:53.059902+00:00"}]}}}