{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"fed-rate-decision","title":"The Fed rate decisions record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"federal reserve","bound":true,"basis":"canonical-event-alias","statement":"Lead subject \"federal reserve\" — not spelled in the subject line (\"Fed rate decisions\"), but an exact member of the canonical alias list this platform maintains for \"fed-rate-decision\", so the binding is stated rather than inferred. The layers below are that subject's own.","candidatesConsidered":["federal reserve"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"rate-decision"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-22","generatedAt":"2026-08-22T23:27:49.197705+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/fed-rate-decision and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/fed-rate-decision so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"federal reserve\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 2 attributable rows for \"federal reserve\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Fed rate decisions\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":2,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":2,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["fed","decisions","decision","chair","cuts","hikes","holds","meeting","pause","raises","fomc","interest","powell","cut","hike"],"questionSet":["emergency","december","decrease","bps","october"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":198,"outlets":86,"activeDays":37,"firstSeen":"2026-04-14","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-21","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["auto","crypto_defi","luxury_real_estate"],"asserts":{"econ-release":23,"rate-decision":12,"launch-release":7,"utterance":6,"price-threshold":6,"regulatory-approval":4},"assertionCoverage":0.354,"movesWith":[{"name":"treasury","together":58,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"name":"crypto","together":36,"sharedDomains":["auto","crypto_defi"]},{"name":"s&p 500","together":29,"sharedDomains":["auto","crypto_defi"]},{"name":"inflation","together":90},{"name":"interest rates","together":76},{"name":"housing","together":32,"sharedDomains":["luxury_real_estate"]},{"name":"oil","together":33},{"name":"iran","together":32}],"movesWithLabels":["treasury","crypto","s&p 500","inflation","interest rates","housing","oil","iran"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":3638,"periods":[{"period":"2029","mentions":21},{"period":"2027-06","mentions":25},{"period":"2027","mentions":219},{"period":"2026-12","mentions":265},{"period":"2026-10","mentions":301},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":322},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":42},{"period":"2026","mentions":2443}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"federal reserve\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Fed rate decisions","slug":"fed-rate-decision","questionCount":33,"questions":["Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?","Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?","Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?","Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?","Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?","Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?"],"mentions":3638,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-20","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-22","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"federal reserve\" — not spelled in the subject line (\"Fed rate decisions\"), but an exact member of the canonical alias list this platform maintains for \"fed-rate-decision\", so the binding is stated rather than inferred. The layers below are that subject's own. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-08-19T15:07:45.991325+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-07T15:06:56.050386+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-08-19T15:07:45.991325+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-07T15:06:56.050386+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-20T15:10:27.094198+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-19T15:07:45.991325+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-20T15:10:27.094198+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-19T15:07:45.991325+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-08-21T15:10:33.488127+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-20T15:10:27.094198+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-08-21T15:10:33.488127+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-20T15:10:27.094198+00:00"}]}}}