{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"gaza-ceasefire","title":"The Gaza ceasefire record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"gaza","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"gaza\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Gaza ceasefire\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: israel — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it.","candidatesConsidered":["gaza","israel"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["israel"],"actionClass":"ceasefire-deal"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-22","generatedAt":"2026-08-22T23:27:49.197705+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/gaza-ceasefire and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/gaza-ceasefire so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"gaza\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 5 attributable rows for \"gaza\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Gaza ceasefire\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":5,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":5,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["ceasefire","curated","cancelled","truce","war","hamas","hostage","israel","rafah"],"questionSet":["agrees","board","peace","august","flotilla","reach","may"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":530,"outlets":32,"activeDays":11,"firstSeen":"2026-07-28","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["middle_east","turkey"],"asserts":{"ceasefire-deal":127,"meeting-visit":52,"utterance":42,"military-action":41,"sanction-trade":12,"election":12},"assertionCoverage":0.557,"movesWith":[{"name":"israel","together":415,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":80,"meeting-visit":16,"sanction-trade":2}},{"name":"netanyahu","together":153,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":19,"meeting-visit":16}},{"name":"egyptian","together":111,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":31,"meeting-visit":12}},{"name":"prime minister benjamin","together":103,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"]},{"name":"west bank","together":85,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"]},{"name":"kushner","together":106,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":35,"meeting-visit":33}},{"name":"aug","together":100,"sharedDomains":["turkey"]},{"name":"iran","together":91,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]}],"movesWithLabels":["israel","netanyahu","egyptian","prime minister benjamin","west bank","kushner","aug","iran"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"fading","baselineRelativePct":-26,"reading":"Our coverage of Gaza ceasefire is 26% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":99,"eventMentions":286,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":38},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":19},{"period":"2026","mentions":229}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":26,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-22","capturedAt":"2026-07-31","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Gaza ceasefire","slug":"gaza-ceasefire","questionCount":6,"questions":["Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?","Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?"],"mentions":286,"firstSeen":"2026-03-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-02","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-22","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"gaza\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Gaza ceasefire\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: israel — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-19T15:07:45.991325+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-17T15:02:47.105972+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-08-20T15:10:27.094198+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-19T15:07:45.991325+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-08-20T15:10:27.094198+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-19T15:07:45.991325+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-20T21:20:37.715875+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-20T15:10:27.094198+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-20T21:20:37.715875+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-20T15:10:27.094198+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-08-21T15:10:33.488127+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-20T21:20:37.715875+00:00"}]}}}