{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"product-launch-anthropic","title":"The Product launch: Anthropic record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"anthropic","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"anthropic\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Product launch: Anthropic\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["anthropic"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"launch-release"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-22","generatedAt":"2026-08-22T23:27:49.197705+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/product-launch-anthropic and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/product-launch-anthropic so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"anthropic\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 4 attributable rows for \"anthropic\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Product launch: Anthropic\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":4,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":4,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["product","launch"],"questionSet":["claude","sonnet","debut","score","least","1470","december","mythos","text","arena","leaderboard","1500","opus","model","humanity","last","exam","higher"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":1164,"outlets":226,"activeDays":149,"firstSeen":"2026-03-03","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-21","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["ai_investing"],"asserts":null,"assertionCoverage":0.189,"movesWith":[{"name":"ai","together":827,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"],"verbs":{"acquisition":9}},{"name":"openai","together":575,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"nvidia","together":113,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"deepseek","together":110,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"china","together":217},{"name":"google","together":184},{"name":"microsoft","together":167},{"name":"meta","together":126}],"movesWithLabels":["ai","openai","nvidia","deepseek","china","google","microsoft","meta"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":25,"reading":"Our coverage of Product launch: Anthropic is 25% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":103,"eventMentions":602,"periods":[{"period":"2026-12","mentions":391},{"period":"2026","mentions":211}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"anthropic\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Product launch: Anthropic","slug":"product-launch-anthropic","questionCount":22,"questions":["Will Claude Sonnet 5 debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?","Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+?","Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?"],"mentions":602,"firstSeen":"2026-06-10","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-18","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-22","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"anthropic\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Product launch: Anthropic\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-08-19T15:07:45.991325+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-17T15:02:47.105972+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-20T15:10:27.094198+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-19T15:07:45.991325+00:00"}]}}}