{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"product-launch-apple","title":"The Product launch: Apple record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"apple","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"apple\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Product launch: Apple\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["apple"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"launch-release"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-29","generatedAt":"2026-08-29T16:01:54.942135+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/product-launch-apple and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/product-launch-apple so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"apple\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 9 attributable rows sampled for \"apple\", 1 served, 8 withheld as not shown to be about \"Product launch: Apple\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":9,"served":1,"withheldNotEventRelevant":8,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["product","launch"],"questionSet":["release","foldable","iphone","line","touchscreen","macbook","cellular","connectivity","version","march"]},"items":[{"title":"Tim Cook wasn’t a ‘product guy’ — so he re-engineered Apple instead","url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tim-cook-wasnt-a-product-guy-so-he-re-engineered-apple-instead-03ca53f4?mod=mw_rss_topstories","date":"2026-08-29","source":"MarketWatch","eventTerms":["product"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":404,"outlets":143,"activeDays":47,"firstSeen":"2026-03-19","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":null,"lastSeenStatus":"withheld-future-dated","lastSeenNote":"unmeasured — the lastSeen stamp on this subject read 2026-09-01, which is after today (2026-08-29). A document we have not reached yet cannot be one we have seen, so the stamp is withheld rather than clamped: a clamped date would be a fabricated observation. The cause is a forward-dated publisher field (a grant's period-of-performance start, a journal's ahead-of-print issue date) reaching our \"when we saw it\" axis. This is neither a real date nor a measured zero.","homeDomains":["auto"],"asserts":null,"assertionCoverage":0.149,"movesWith":[{"name":"ai","together":146,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"google","together":115,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"amazon","together":63,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"nvidia","together":63,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"microsoft","together":49,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"china","together":37,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"meta","together":37,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"openai","together":53}],"movesWithLabels":["ai","google","amazon","nvidia","microsoft","china","meta","openai"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-26,"reading":"Our coverage of Product launch: Apple is 26% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":102,"eventMentions":212,"periods":[{"period":"2026-08","mentions":1},{"period":"2026","mentions":211}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"apple\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Product launch: Apple","slug":"product-launch-apple","questionCount":6,"questions":["Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?","Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?","Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?","Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?","Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?","Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31?"],"mentions":212,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-24","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-29","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"apple\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Product launch: Apple\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-24T15:13:34.502059+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-23T15:05:52.843966+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-29T16:01:54.942135+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-24T15:13:34.502059+00:00"}]}}}