{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"product-launch-xai","title":"The Product launch: xAI record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"xai","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"xai\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Product launch: xAI\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["xai"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"launch-release"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-27","generatedAt":"2026-08-27T18:38:35.269429+00:00","tracked":false,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/product-launch-xai and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/product-launch-xai so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"xai\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"subject-not-in-tracked-entity-set","note":"unmeasured — \"xai\" is this record's subject, but it is not in the current tracked-entity set, so we hold no sampled coverage to attribute. This is not a measured zero.","sampledForSubject":0,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":0,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["product","launch"],"questionSet":["grok","model","released","debut","score","least","1440","december","1460","release","dllm","humanity","last","exam","higher"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":84,"outlets":46,"activeDays":43,"firstSeen":"2026-03-03","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-21","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["ai_investing"],"asserts":null,"assertionCoverage":0.19,"movesWith":[{"name":"ai","together":59,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"openai","together":58,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"anthropic","together":46,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"cursor","together":17,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"deepseek","together":14,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"nvidia","together":14,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"google","together":23},{"name":"spacex","together":19}],"movesWithLabels":["ai","openai","anthropic","cursor","deepseek","nvidia","google","spacex"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":401,"periods":[{"period":"2026-12","mentions":285},{"period":"2026","mentions":116}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"subject-not-in-tracked-entity-set","rowsNote":"unmeasured — \"xai\" is this record's subject, but it is not in the current tracked-entity set, so we hold no sampled coverage to attribute. This is not a measured zero.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Product launch: xAI","slug":"product-launch-xai","questionCount":19,"questions":["Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?","Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460?","Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?","Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?"],"mentions":401,"firstSeen":"2026-05-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-11","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-27","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"xai\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Product launch: xAI\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-23T15:05:52.843966+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-15T14:57:13.688622+00:00"}]}}}