{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"rate-decision-interest-rates","title":"The Rate decision: Interest Rates record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"interest rates","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"interest rates\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Rate decision: Interest Rates\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: australia — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it.","candidatesConsidered":["australia","interest rates"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["australia"],"actionClass":"rate-decision"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-22","generatedAt":"2026-08-22T23:27:49.197705+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/rate-decision-interest-rates and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/rate-decision-interest-rates so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"interest rates\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"subject-not-in-tracked-entity-set","note":"unmeasured — \"interest rates\" is this record's subject, but it is not in the current tracked-entity set, so we hold no sampled coverage to attribute. This is not a measured zero.","sampledForSubject":0,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":0,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["decision"],"questionSet":["bank","mexico","decreases","bps","november","meeting","reserve","australia"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":374,"outlets":83,"activeDays":34,"firstSeen":"2026-04-14","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":[],"asserts":{"rate-decision":74,"econ-release":27,"utterance":10,"price-threshold":9,"acquisition":8,"meeting-visit":3},"assertionCoverage":0.382,"movesWith":[{"name":"inflation","together":133},{"name":"treasury","together":85},{"name":"federal reserve","together":76},{"name":"oil","together":63},{"name":"housing","together":62},{"name":"iran","together":55},{"name":"ai","together":54},{"name":"real estate","together":54}],"movesWithLabels":["inflation","treasury","federal reserve","oil","housing","iran","ai","real estate"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":880,"periods":[{"period":"2026-11","mentions":105},{"period":"2026-10","mentions":80},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":295},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":400}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"subject-not-in-tracked-entity-set","rowsNote":"unmeasured — \"interest rates\" is this record's subject, but it is not in the current tracked-entity set, so we hold no sampled coverage to attribute. This is not a measured zero.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Rate decision: Interest Rates","slug":"rate-decision-interest-rates","questionCount":35,"questions":["Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?","No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?","Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the November 2026 meeting?","No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?"],"mentions":880,"firstSeen":"2026-05-25","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-11","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-22","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"interest rates\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Rate decision: Interest Rates\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: australia — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"none-recorded","note":"Measured zero: the ledger holds no coverage-state transition for \"interest rates\". We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]}}}