{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"russia-ukraine-war","title":"The Russia–Ukraine war record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"russia","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"russia\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Russia–Ukraine war\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: putin, trump, zelenskyy — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them.","candidatesConsidered":["donbas","putin","russia","trump","ukraine","zelenskyy"],"alsoDefensible":["ukraine","donbas"],"rejected":["putin","trump","zelenskyy"],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-22","generatedAt":"2026-08-22T23:27:49.197705+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/russia-ukraine-war and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/russia-ukraine-war so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"russia\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 5 attributable rows sampled for \"russia\", 4 served, 1 withheld as not shown to be about \"Russia–Ukraine war\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":5,"served":4,"withheldNotEventRelevant":1,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["ukraine","war","diplomacy","arms","crimea","donbas","donetsk","invasion","kharkiv","kremlin","kyiv","putin","ceasefire","forces","aid","front","peace","defense","ukrainian","zaporizhzhia","zelensky"],"questionSet":["president","agreement","trump","together","referendum","passed","meet"]},"items":[{"title":"Ukrainian drones kill several, hit warehouse of Russian online retailer Ozon - Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxQR3V4eHZkQWFrSEdIRXBiQjVXZUd6c3FuVllaNWVWQmRqeFY0WUhkQWswRVFNRGJFT0tFWkJVbTlqNnVOT0F1Rk0yRHlrVUhDRldJcjRlTjVjcjVDbG1Sc2tkQ0t5MWwzcHJBSmduTWhXazBUWHVKWUFrRmRkZzhYdXh4Wko4R3k2bmp6VDFpRkRudkNaVWxsUm85ZUxtbGFNNUxIdEExV2hxbDRTalFQeGR5cVFxTTZ3b0U4?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","eventTerms":["ukraine","ukrainian"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Russian and Ukrainian attacks kill 5 people a day after deadly shopping mall drone strike by Moscow - AP News","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxQVURpSFQ4WnVGVmZkQzdrYS1FTUVNdHRIREZWYU1iek1RV24tNjlINGRZSHU3bElZSFBHVHFTQklmdXRlaGk2eWFoM2NUWWVRTGkzbjdxM1FkTXFpM0hDOTBXaDZsQXFZZEJLcGtLai16ZjZHQmtpcVhLOG1Yc2dpSzJQSi1ObWNIT2xMbkwxQmxha0RmV0ZfNWFwQjFpeFNJ?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","eventTerms":["ukraine","ukrainian"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Russia's Lavrov reiterates claim of Ukraine, France roles in Sahel insecurity","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/Africa/comments/1vv4cab/russias_lavrov_reiterates_claim_of_ukraine_france/","eventTerms":["ukraine","ukrainian"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Ukraine found an uncontrolled Nvidia AI chip inside a Russian cruise missile","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/artificial/comments/1vtjfva/ukraine_found_an_uncontrolled_nvidia_ai_chip/","eventTerms":["ukraine","ukrainian"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":882,"outlets":151,"activeDays":56,"firstSeen":"1993-12-16","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["cloud_computing"],"asserts":{"military-action":83,"utterance":71,"disaster":39,"meeting-visit":27,"sanction-trade":17,"election":12},"assertionCoverage":0.323,"movesWith":[{"name":"china","together":355},{"name":"microsoft","together":154,"sharedDomains":["cloud_computing"]},{"name":"iran","together":324},{"name":"swiss","together":148,"sharedDomains":["cloud_computing"]},{"name":"ukraine","together":316,"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":2,"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"franklin","together":141,"sharedDomains":["cloud_computing"]},{"name":"mint","together":141,"sharedDomains":["cloud_computing"]},{"name":"phoenix","together":141,"sharedDomains":["cloud_computing"]}],"movesWithLabels":["china","microsoft","iran","swiss","ukraine","franklin","mint","phoenix"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":62,"reading":"Our coverage of Russia–Ukraine war is 62% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":103,"eventMentions":1294,"periods":[{"period":"2027-06","mentions":48},{"period":"2027-03","mentions":4},{"period":"2027","mentions":168},{"period":"2026-12","mentions":248},{"period":"2026-10","mentions":86},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":86},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":442},{"period":"2026","mentions":212}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[],"arc":[{"question":"Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-krasnoiarske-by-march-31","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":94,"change24hPct":90.7,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-23","deadline":"2026-07-31","deadlinePassed":true,"reading":"belief, not fact","status":"historical capture — deadline passed, kept as recorded; final resolution at the venue"},{"question":"Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":99,"change24hPct":83,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-23","deadline":"2026-07-31","deadlinePassed":true,"reading":"belief, not fact","status":"historical capture — deadline passed, kept as recorded; final resolution at the venue"}],"eventArc":{"name":"Russia–Ukraine war","slug":"russia-ukraine-war","questionCount":41,"questions":["Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?","Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?","Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?","Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?"],"mentions":1294,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-20","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-22","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"russia\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Russia–Ukraine war\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: putin, trump, zelenskyy — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-18T15:06:56.513447+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-15T14:57:13.688622+00:00"}]}}}