{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"strait-of-hormuz","title":"The Strait of Hormuz record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hormuz","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"hormuz\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Strait of Hormuz\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["hormuz"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-22","generatedAt":"2026-08-22T23:27:49.197705+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/strait-of-hormuz and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/strait-of-hormuz so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"hormuz\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":null,"sampledForSubject":5,"served":5,"withheldNotEventRelevant":0,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["strait","curated","close","traffic"],"questionSet":["charges","fees","december","least","ships","transit","day","august","united","kingdom","send","warships","through","trump","agree","iranian","may","between","average","daily","transits","fewer"]},"items":[{"title":"I have a solution to the Strait of Hormuz COG-USV & DST","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/maritime/comments/1vtzr1a/i_have_a_solution_to_the_strait_of_hormuz_cogusv/","eventTerms":["strait"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Strait of Hormuz Forces Inventory Increase—at a Price","url":"https://gfmag.com/economics-policy-regulation/strait-of-hormuz-forces-inventory-increase-at-a-price/","eventTerms":["strait"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Iran allows Iraqi oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz amid regional tensions","url":"https://cryptobriefing.com/iran-allows-iraqi-oil-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-amid-regional-tensions/","eventTerms":["strait"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Strait of Hormuz chaos has incentivized China to use an alternative trade route: a 3,400 mile frozen Arctic channel dubbed the ‘Ice Silk Road’","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1vstx6d/strait_of_hormuz_chaos_has_incentivized_china_to/","eventTerms":["strait"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"U.S. military says it aided passage of 660 million barrels of oil through Strait of Hormuz since May","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/energy/comments/1vuh639/us_military_says_it_aided_passage_of_660_million/","eventTerms":["strait"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":616,"outlets":102,"activeDays":47,"firstSeen":"2026-04-12","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["energy","iran_regime","middle_east"],"asserts":{"utterance":97,"military-action":69,"meeting-visit":15,"econ-release":12,"price-threshold":9,"sanction-trade":8},"assertionCoverage":0.372,"movesWith":[{"name":"iran","together":443,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":3}},{"name":"oil","together":338,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"israel","together":181,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"middle east","together":152,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"iraq","together":82,"sharedDomains":["energy","iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"name":"yemen","together":82,"sharedDomains":["energy","iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"name":"trump","together":257,"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":88,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]}],"movesWithLabels":["iran","oil","israel","middle east","iraq","yemen","trump","saudi arabia"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-29,"reading":"Our coverage of Strait of Hormuz is 29% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":103,"eventMentions":3592,"periods":[{"period":"2026-12","mentions":36},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":498},{"period":"2026","mentions":3058}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-15-20260810150912478","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":2,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-22","capturedAt":"2026-08-12","deadline":"2026-09-15","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":0,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-22","capturedAt":"2026-08-02","deadline":"2026-08-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Strait of Hormuz","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","questionCount":25,"questions":["US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?","Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?","Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?","Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?","Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?"],"mentions":3592,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-18","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-22","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"hormuz\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Strait of Hormuz\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-18T15:06:56.513447+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-16T14:55:51.532509+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-21T15:10:33.488127+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-18T15:06:56.513447+00:00"}]}}}