{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"us-midterms-2026","title":"The U.S. midterms 2026 record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":null,"bound":false,"basis":"unbound","statement":"We cannot bind a subject to this record with confidence, so we publish that instead of guessing. The event registry attaches 2 entities to \"U.S. midterms 2026\" (clark, senate), and none is named in the record's own subject line or listed as a canonical alias for \"us-midterms-2026\". Binding to one anyway is how a record about an election ends up serving a manufacturer's news, so the entity-derived layers are withheld and labelled unmeasured — never rendered blank, which would read as a measured zero.","candidatesConsidered":["clark","senate"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["clark","senate"],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"not-enough-to-publish","publishStateNote":"Not enough to publish a subject-bound record. The event-level layers below (our coverage count and the crowd's question set for this event) are real and stated; the entity-derived layers are WITHHELD, not empty — we do not fill a gap with a neighbouring subject's evidence.","asOf":"2026-08-22","generatedAt":"2026-08-22T23:27:49.197705+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/us-midterms-2026 and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/us-midterms-2026 so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"null\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"unbound","note":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","sampledForSubject":0,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":0,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["midterms","election","midterm","balance","congressional","elections","control","congress","house","senate","majority"],"questionSet":["katherine","clark","first","speaker","tom","cotton","leader","republican","party","hold","fewer","seats","democratic"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","status":"absent","basis":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","documents":null,"outlets":null,"activeDays":null},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":9953,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":530},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":36},{"period":"2026","mentions":9387}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"unbound","rowsNote":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"U.S. midterms 2026","slug":"us-midterms-2026","questionCount":23,"questions":["Will Katherine Clark be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?","Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?","Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?","Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?"],"mentions":9953,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-20","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-22","text":"This record cannot state a subject-bound reading, and we say so rather than assembling one. We cannot bind a subject to this record with confidence, so we publish that instead of guessing. The event registry attaches 2 entities to \"U.S. midterms 2026\" (clark, senate), and none is named in the record's own subject line or listed as a canonical alias for \"us-midterms-2026\". Binding to one anyway is how a record about an election ends up serving a manufacturer's news, so the entity-derived layers are withheld and labelled unmeasured — never rendered blank, which would read as a measured zero. What stands is the event-level measurement: our own coverage count for \"U.S. midterms 2026\" and the 23 market questions the crowd prices under it. The entity-derived layers are withheld — an unmeasured layer and a measured zero must never look alike, so we label which one this is."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"unbound","note":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","transitions":[]}}}