{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"us-recession-2026","title":"The U.S. recession risk, 2026 record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":null,"bound":false,"basis":"unbound","statement":"We cannot bind a subject to this record with confidence, so we publish that instead of guessing. The event registry attaches 1 entity to \"U.S. recession risk, 2026\" (us economy), and none is named in the record's own subject line or listed as a canonical alias for \"us-recession-2026\". Binding to one anyway is how a record about an election ends up serving a manufacturer's news, so the entity-derived layers are withheld and labelled unmeasured — never rendered blank, which would read as a measured zero.","candidatesConsidered":["us economy"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["us economy"],"actionClass":"econ-release"},"publishState":"not-enough-to-publish","publishStateNote":"Not enough to publish a subject-bound record. The event-level layers below (our coverage count and the crowd's question set for this event) are real and stated; the entity-derived layers are WITHHELD, not empty — we do not fill a gap with a neighbouring subject's evidence.","asOf":"2026-08-22","generatedAt":"2026-08-22T23:27:49.197705+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/us-recession-2026 and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/us-recession-2026 so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"null\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"unbound","note":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","sampledForSubject":0,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":0,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["recession","risk","economic","indicator","enter","fears","odds","year"],"questionSet":["end"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","status":"absent","basis":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","documents":null,"outlets":null,"activeDays":null},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":135,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":6},{"period":"2026","mentions":129}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"unbound","rowsNote":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"U.S. recession risk, 2026","slug":"us-recession-2026","questionCount":2,"questions":["US recession by end of 2027?"],"mentions":135,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-16","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-22","text":"This record cannot state a subject-bound reading, and we say so rather than assembling one. We cannot bind a subject to this record with confidence, so we publish that instead of guessing. The event registry attaches 1 entity to \"U.S. recession risk, 2026\" (us economy), and none is named in the record's own subject line or listed as a canonical alias for \"us-recession-2026\". Binding to one anyway is how a record about an election ends up serving a manufacturer's news, so the entity-derived layers are withheld and labelled unmeasured — never rendered blank, which would read as a measured zero. What stands is the event-level measurement: our own coverage count for \"U.S. recession risk, 2026\" and the 2 market questions the crowd prices under it. The entity-derived layers are withheld — an unmeasured layer and a measured zero must never look alike, so we label which one this is."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"unbound","note":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","transitions":[]}}}