{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"venezuela-crisis","title":"The Venezuela crisis record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"venezuela","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"venezuela\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Venezuela crisis\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["machado","maduro","venezuela"],"alsoDefensible":["maduro","machado"],"rejected":[],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-22","generatedAt":"2026-08-22T23:27:49.197705+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/venezuela-crisis and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/venezuela-crisis so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"venezuela\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 1 attributable row for \"venezuela\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Venezuela crisis\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":1,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":1,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["curated","caracas","machado","maduro","forces","enter"],"questionSet":["nicol","sentenced","between","years","prison","released","custody","december","election","scheduled","invade","delcy","rodr","guez","leader","donald","trump","publicly","insult","august"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":79,"outlets":41,"activeDays":13,"firstSeen":"2026-04-16","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-21","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["energy"],"asserts":{"utterance":7,"sanction-trade":4,"disaster":3,"military-action":3,"regulatory-approval":2,"meeting-visit":2},"assertionCoverage":0.304,"movesWith":[{"name":"oil","together":28,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"maduro","together":20,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"trump","together":27},{"name":"united states","together":19},{"name":"russia","together":18},{"name":"china","together":17},{"name":"israel","together":15},{"name":"iran","together":13}],"movesWithLabels":["oil","maduro","trump","united states","russia","china","israel","iran"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":10297,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":215},{"period":"2026-12","mentions":172},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":7004},{"period":"2026","mentions":2906}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-january-31","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":16,"change24hPct":-27.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-30","deadline":"2026-08-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31","source":"Polymarket (geopolitics)","probabilityPct":42,"change24hPct":25,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-11","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Venezuela crisis","slug":"venezuela-crisis","questionCount":22,"questions":["Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?","Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?","Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?","Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?","Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?","Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by August 31, 2026?"],"mentions":10297,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-22","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"venezuela\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Venezuela crisis\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-08-18T15:06:56.513447+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-17T15:02:47.105972+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-08-18T15:06:56.513447+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-17T15:02:47.105972+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-20T15:10:27.094198+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-18T15:06:56.513447+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-20T15:10:27.094198+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-18T15:06:56.513447+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-08-21T15:10:33.488127+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-20T15:10:27.094198+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-08-21T15:10:33.488127+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-20T15:10:27.094198+00:00"}]}}}