China
See what's moving around China and get a calibrated, source-checked read on what happens next — and where it diverges from the market.
Markets pricing China now
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
13% Yes
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4% Yes
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
7% Yes
Prediction-market prices — a signal of what the crowd believes, not our read. Ask for the calibrated take.