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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Congress

The legislative branch of the U.S. government; the House of Representatives and the Senate together.

Coverage of Congress is holding steady : 11 signals on the latest tracked day, up 38% from its three-week baseline of 8, across 6 domains (up from 5 a week ago). That makes it the #89 most-covered of the 289 concerns we track.

Congress is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 8 signals a day across 6 domains (45 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 10+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 6. That is the move that would push it up the Wire.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 598 tracked stories from 154 outlets, reporting on Congress most often describes public statements (25), elections (19), military action (16), sanctions or trade (12), regulatory approvals (11), meetings or visits (11).

It shows up alongside Trump (194), India (67), Senate (137), Modi (48), United States (80), Pentagon (78), Aug (68), Iran (68).

Two steps out: Hormuz (through Trump, 194 shared stories on the weaker link); Israel (through Trump, 194 shared stories on the weaker link); China (through Trump, 180 shared stories on the weaker link); Oil (through Trump, 170 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 12, with coverage on 58 separate days — concentrated in India South Asia.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “US congress stock trading ban before 2027?” rose 5 points between Jul 9 and Jul 23, from 7% to 12%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 2 – Aug 16, 45 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 17, 1:38 AM PT