Skip to content
Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Earthquake

Sudden ground shaking from shifts in the Earth's crust; tracked for disaster, insurance, and infrastructure impact.

Coverage of Earthquake is rising : 11 signals on the latest tracked day, up 120% from its three-week baseline of 5, across 5 domains (up from 3 a week ago). That makes it the #91 most-covered of the 289 concerns we track.

If Earthquake matters to your work, coverage is climbing off its baseline — worth a closer-than-usual look this week.

What’s changed

6 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 847 tracked stories from 45 outlets, reporting on Earthquake most often describes disaster (771), public statements (4), military action (2), regulatory approvals (1), award (1), sporting outcomes (1).

It shows up alongside Indonesia (89), Philippines (88), Japan (71), Papua New Guinea (31), Tonga (31), Taiwan (22), Aug (40), Russia (40).

Two steps out: AI (through Japan, 71 shared stories on the weaker link); China (through Japan, 71 shared stories on the weaker link); Korea (through Japan, 71 shared stories on the weaker link); Seoul (through Japan, 71 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 6, with coverage on 122 separate days — concentrated in Geophysical.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?” held at 6% between Jul 2 and Aug 16.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
Ask the engine about Earthquake + Track Earthquake for a daily read
Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 2 – Aug 16, 31 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 17, 1:39 AM PT