Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes.
Coverage of Hormuz is holding steady : 32 signals on the latest tracked day, up 191% from its three-week baseline of 11, across 14 domains (up from 12 a week ago). That makes it the #27 most-covered of the 289 concerns we track.
Hormuz is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 11 signals a day across 14 domains (45 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 14+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 14. That is the move that would push it up the Wire.
What’s changed
7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.
- Shipping slows through Strait of Hormuz after tanker attacks, data shows · Al-Monitor — Middle East · 2026-08-17
- UKMTO says bulk carrier struck in Hormuz · Middle East Eye · 2026-08-15
- Oil holds above US$88 as Hormuz crisis keeps markets on edge · The Vibes · 2026-08-17 · usually covers Macro Economics
- After Hormuz, China looks to the promise – and peril – of the Arctic’s ‘ice silk road’ · The Guardian · 2026-08-17 · usually covers Australia
- The post-Hormuz era offers Africa a great opportunity · Al Jazeera — All News · 2026-08-16 · usually covers Africa
- Oil Tankers Attacked Again in Strait of Hormuz as U.S. Ramps Up Pressure on Iran; Global Oil Prices Jump Nearly 6% This Week · finance.biggo.com · 2026-08-16 · usually covers South Korea
What the reporting says
Across 572 tracked stories from 93 outlets, reporting on Hormuz most often describes public statements (113), military action (48), economic releases (19), meetings or visits (16), price levels (6), launches or releases (4).
It shows up alongside Iran (445 — meetings or visits ×6), Oil (292 — meetings or visits ×3), Israel (182), Saudi Arabia (117), Yemen (106), Middle East (152), Trump (198), United States (162).
Two steps out: Russia (through Iran, 284 shared stories on the weaker link); China (through Iran, 279 shared stories on the weaker link); Congress (through Trump, 194 shared stories on the weaker link); Aug (through Trump, 190 shared stories on the weaker link).
Tracked since Apr 12, with coverage on 47 separate days — concentrated in Energy and Iran Regime.
What the crowd is pricing
The odds the crowd puts on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” fell 36 points between Jul 2 and Aug 16, from 82% to 46%.