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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

India

The world's most populous country — a nuclear power and fast-growing major economy.

Coverage of India is holding steady : 52 signals on the latest tracked day, down 17% from its three-week baseline of 63, across 18 domains (up from 14 a week ago). That makes it the #31 most-covered of the 349 concerns we track.

India is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 63 signals a day across 18 domains (26 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 79+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 18. That is the move that would push it up the Wire.

What’s changed

What the reporting says

Across 1,028 tracked stories from 165 outlets, reporting on India most often describes economic releases (43), public statements (34), launches or releases (30), meetings or visits (21), military action (19), acquisition (15).

It shows up alongside Delhi (142), China (191), Modi (80), GDP (71), Independence Day (67), Congress (66), AI (109), Oil (105).

Two steps out: Anthropic (through China, 191 shared stories on the weaker link); Aug (through China, 191 shared stories on the weaker link); Iran (through China, 191 shared stories on the weaker link); Japan (through China, 191 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 16, with coverage on 50 separate days — concentrated in India South Asia.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?” fell 5 points between Jul 8 and Aug 22, from 16% to 11%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 28 – Aug 22, 26 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 22, 4:13 PM PT