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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Iran

A major Middle Eastern state whose oil, nuclear program, and regional proxies keep it central to Gulf security.

Coverage of Iran is fading : 76 signals on the latest tracked day, up 15% from its three-week baseline of 66, across 16 domains (down from 18 a week ago). That makes it the #7 most-covered of the 289 concerns we track.

If Iran matters to your work, attention is draining away — the pace of news no longer demands a daily check.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 1,322 tracked stories from 232 outlets, reporting on Iran most often describes public statements (253), military action (120), meetings or visits (34), economic releases (31), launches or releases (18), sanctions or trade (14).

It shows up alongside Hormuz (445 — meetings or visits ×6), Israel (352), Middle East (237), Saudi Arabia (179), Oil (365 — meetings or visits ×4), Trump (365 — sanctions or trade ×2), Yemen (153), Russia (284).

Two steps out: Gaza (through Israel, 319 shared stories on the weaker link); China (through Russia, 284 shared stories on the weaker link); United States (through Trump, 269 shared stories on the weaker link); Congress (through Trump, 194 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 13, with coverage on 96 separate days — concentrated in Middle East.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” rose 2 points between Jul 2 and Aug 16, from 14% to 16%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 2 – Aug 16, 45 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 17, 1:38 AM PT