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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

North Korea

The isolated, nuclear-armed state on the Korean Peninsula, ruled by the Kim family.

Coverage of North Korea is rising : 18 signals on the latest tracked day, up 157% from its three-week baseline of 7, across 3 domains (down from 4 a week ago). That makes it the #48 most-covered of the 289 concerns we track.

If North Korea matters to your work, coverage is climbing off its baseline — worth a closer-than-usual look this week.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 196 tracked stories from 25 outlets, reporting on North Korea most often describes military action (23), public statements (13), meetings or visits (10), price levels (3), legal rulings (2), sanctions or trade (2).

It shows up alongside Korea (188), South Korea (133), Seoul (102), Aug (84), Japan (52), Ukraine (45), Ulchi Freedom Shield (37), Korean Central (33).

Two steps out: China (through Korea, 159 shared stories on the weaker link); AI (through Korea, 153 shared stories on the weaker link); United States (through Korea, 139 shared stories on the weaker link); Kospi (through South Korea, 87 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Jul 10, with coverage on 12 separate days — concentrated in South Korea.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?” held at 4% between Jul 2 and Aug 12.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 10 – Aug 16, 21 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 17, 1:41 AM PT