Skip to content
Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

OPEC

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries — A bloc of major oil-producing nations that coordinates output to influence global crude prices.

Coverage of OPEC is holding steady : 9 signals on the latest tracked day, up 80% from its three-week baseline of 5, across 3 domains (up from 2 a week ago). That makes it the #114 most-covered of the 289 concerns we track.

OPEC is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 5 signals a day across 3 domains (23 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 7+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 3. That is the move that would push it up the Wire. It sits on our Energy Desk.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 71 tracked stories from 7 outlets, reporting on OPEC most often describes meetings or visits (8), military action (6), price levels (4), economic releases (3), public statements (1), launches or releases (1).

It shows up alongside Oil (62 — meetings or visits ×3), Hormuz (24), Nigeria (15), Adnoc (13), Iran (27), IEA (12), Brent Crude (8), Middle East (11).

Two steps out: Aug (through Oil, 62 shared stories on the weaker link); China (through Oil, 62 shared stories on the weaker link); Inflation (through Oil, 62 shared stories on the weaker link); Israel (through Oil, 62 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Aug 9, with coverage on 8 separate days — concentrated in Energy and Auto.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?” fell 8 points between Jul 2 and Aug 16, from 16% to 8%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
Ask the engine about OPEC + Track OPEC for a daily read
Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 3 – Aug 16, 23 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 17, 1:37 AM PT