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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Recession

A sustained contraction in economic activity, commonly marked by two straight quarters of shrinking output.

Coverage of Recession is fading : 5 signals on the latest tracked day, up 25% from its three-week baseline of 4, across 5 domains (up from 2 a week ago). That makes it the #337 most-covered of the 349 concerns we track.

If Recession matters to your work, attention is draining away — the pace of news no longer demands a daily check.

What’s changed

What the reporting says

Across 66 tracked stories from 34 outlets, reporting on Recession most often describes economic releases (11), price levels (1), military action (1), public statements (1).

It shows up alongside Inflation (16), Treasury (13), Interest Rates (12), Oil (12), Trump (12), AI (10), GDP (10), Housing (9).

Two steps out: CPI (through Inflation, 16 shared stories on the weaker link); Federal Reserve (through Inflation, 16 shared stories on the weaker link); Iran (through Inflation, 16 shared stories on the weaker link); Middle East (through Inflation, 16 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 19, with coverage on 21 separate days.

What the crowd is pricing

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 20 – Aug 27, 7 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 27, 12:52 PM PT