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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Taiwan

A self-governed island claimed by China; it manufactures most of the world's advanced semiconductors, placing it at the center of technology and security risk.

Coverage of Taiwan is holding steady : 5 signals on the latest tracked day, up 25% from its three-week baseline of 4, across 4 domains (unchanged from a week ago). That makes it the #214 most-covered of the 289 concerns we track.

Taiwan is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 4 signals a day across 4 domains (36 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 5+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 4. That is the move that would push it up the Wire. It sits on our Geopolitics Desk.

What’s changed

What the reporting says

Across 170 tracked stories from 70 outlets, reporting on Taiwan most often describes disaster (23), sanctions or trade (8), public statements (5), launches or releases (3), military action (3), meetings or visits (3).

It shows up alongside China (73), AI (51), Japan (49), Earthquake (22), Korea (44), South Korea (39), Semiconductor (35), United States (26).

Two steps out: Anthropic (through China, 73 shared stories on the weaker link); India (through China, 73 shared stories on the weaker link); Iran (through China, 73 shared stories on the weaker link); Microsoft (through China, 73 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 6, with coverage on 45 separate days — concentrated in Geophysical.

What the crowd is pricing

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 2 – Aug 16, 36 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 17, 1:39 AM PT