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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Unemployment

The share of the labor force without work; a core gauge of economic health.

Coverage of Unemployment is holding steady : 4 signals on the latest tracked day, down 56% from its three-week baseline of 9, across 3 domains (down from 4 a week ago). That makes it the #277 most-covered of the 289 concerns we track.

Unemployment is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 9 signals a day across 3 domains (25 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 12+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 3. That is the move that would push it up the Wire.

What’s changed

What the reporting says

Across 159 tracked stories from 63 outlets, reporting on Unemployment most often describes economic releases (38), rate decisions (5), elections (3), price levels (3), public statements (2), acquisition (1).

It shows up alongside AI (43), Inflation (37), Federal Reserve (30), Interest Rates (28), Oil (25), CPI (22), Iran (22), Housing (19).

Two steps out: Anthropic (through AI, 43 shared stories on the weaker link); Aug (through AI, 43 shared stories on the weaker link); China (through AI, 43 shared stories on the weaker link); Google (through AI, 43 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 6, with coverage on 26 separate days.

What the crowd is pricing

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 2 – Aug 16, 25 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 17, 1:41 AM PT