Iran: 27 days of notice.
We flagged rising Iran activity across 37 of our domains on May 3, 2026. The public consensus, read through one sensor we cite, still priced this question at 94.7%. Over the next 27 days the crowd's answer moved to 3.1%.
What our wire showed
Iran had been on our wire since Apr 4, 2026. On May 3, 2026 our watchers flagged it escalating across 37 domains at once — including Africa, African Economy, Agriculture Food, Australia Economy, Aztc Aasd. Breadth is the tell: one domain talking is a story, 37 domains moving together is a signal.
- Air Force's top general: Supplemental funding needed to replace US aircraft lost in Iran
160 tracked sources contributed to the flag that day; these headlines are stored verbatim in our detection ledger.
What the public consensus did next
The crowd was asked: "Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?" Between May 3, 2026 and May 30, 2026 its collective answer moved from 94.7% likely to 3.1% likely.
Why this is evidence
The gap between our flag and the crowd’s reprice is 27 days. That gap is the product: attention spreading across domains before the public consensus finishes catching up. One case is an anecdote; the full record holds every qualifying case our append-only ledger has accrued, plus the flagged-vs-control regression behind the aggregate.
Mechanically selected from our append-only evidence ledger (cross_domain/evidence_portfolio.jsonl); case id fam:iran:will-usd-reach-m-iranian-rials-by-may::will-usd-reach-1pt9m-iranian-rials-by-may-31. Attention leading a reprice is an association, not advice — we cite the crowd’s price as a sensor; nothing here is a directional or trading claim.