China: 45 days of notice.
We flagged rising China activity across 54 of our domains on Apr 4, 2026. The public consensus, read through one sensor we cite, still priced this question at 77%. Over the next 45 days the crowd's answer moved to 100%.
What our wire showed
China had been on our wire since Apr 4, 2026. On Apr 4, 2026 our watchers flagged it escalating across 54 domains at once — including Africa, AI Policy, AI Safety, Anti Corruption, Antitrust. Breadth is the tell: one domain talking is a story, 54 domains moving together is a signal.
- South Africa welcomes Chinese investment to boost economic development, says minister - Xinhua
- China gains ground in DR Congo’s mining sector as Australian firm loses permits - South China Morning Post
- China’s Chery plans multi-billion-rand car plant at old Nissan Rosslyn site - Moneyweb
- China Moves To Regulate ‘Digital Humans’ With Strict Labelling, AI Safety Rules - arise.tv
191 tracked sources contributed to the flag that day; these headlines are stored verbatim in our detection ledger.
What the public consensus did next
The crowd was asked: "Will Putin visit China by May 31?" Between Apr 4, 2026 and May 19, 2026 its collective answer moved from 77% likely to 100% likely.
Why this is evidence
The gap between our flag and the crowd’s reprice is 45 days. That gap is the product: attention spreading across domains before the public consensus finishes catching up. One case is an anecdote; the full record holds every qualifying case our append-only ledger has accrued, plus the flagged-vs-control regression behind the aggregate.
Mechanically selected from our append-only evidence ledger (cross_domain/evidence_portfolio.jsonl); case id fam:china:will-putin-visit-china-by-may::will-putin-visit-china-by-may-31. Attention leading a reprice is an association, not advice — we cite the crowd’s price as a sensor; nothing here is a directional or trading claim.