Hormuz: 38 days of notice.
We flagged rising Hormuz activity across 13 of our domains on May 22, 2026. The public consensus, read through one sensor we cite, still priced this question at 63%. Over the next 38 days the crowd's answer moved to 5.5%.
What our wire showed
Hormuz had been on our wire since Apr 4, 2026. On May 22, 2026 our watchers flagged it escalating across 13 domains at once — including Agriculture Food, Batteries Storage, Energy, Europe Politics, India South Asia. Breadth is the tell: one domain talking is a story, 13 domains moving together is a signal.
- Iran in Talks With Oman Over Permanent Hormuz Toll System
- Strait Of Hormuz Sulfur Shock Previews Fertilizer’s Future
- Volatility Spikes as Iran Diplomacy Collides With Hormuz Fears
32 tracked sources contributed to the flag that day; these headlines are stored verbatim in our detection ledger.
What the public consensus did next
The crowd was asked: "Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?" Between May 23, 2026 and Jun 29, 2026 its collective answer moved from 63% likely to 5.5% likely.
Why this is evidence
The gap between our flag and the crowd’s reprice is 38 days. That gap is the product: attention spreading across domains before the public consensus finishes catching up. One case is an anecdote; the full record holds every qualifying case our append-only ledger has accrued, plus the flagged-vs-control regression behind the aggregate.
Mechanically selected from our append-only evidence ledger (cross_domain/evidence_portfolio.jsonl); case id strait-of-hormuz:2026-06::will-the-united-states-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-2026. Attention leading a reprice is an association, not advice — we cite the crowd’s price as a sensor; nothing here is a directional or trading claim.