The morning read.

The world is repositioning around two major political shocks: France's presidential race and a U.S. Senate scandal. Simultaneously, dropout probability rocketed 55 points to 97% on $555K as Roll Call reports Democrats are calling for him to step down while he denies a sexual assault allegation — the highest-conviction move in today's data. These are not speculative bets; they're repositioning around breaking news with real political consequences.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz crisis is entering a new phase. The market dropped 5 points to 6% on $539K volume — the second-highest liquidity in today's data — as Foreign Policy reports U.S.-Iran talks are underway and Al Jazeera notes Hormuz has reopened. Oil markets are repricing in parallel: WTI hitting $65 in July fell 21 points to 43% on $72K. The money is saying the supply shock is over. But here's the tension: Hormuz normalization by July 31 is at 6%, while the September 30 market sits at 34% despite falling 9 points today on thin volume ($27K). The gap implies the market expects a fragile reopening — short-term optimism, long-term uncertainty.

The Maine Senate race is the day's clearest divergence. Winning Maine dropped 12 points to 42% on $57K volume. The money is moving against the GOP. Either the market is pricing a collapse that hasn't hit headlines yet, or it's overreacting to broader political trends.