Every morning read, on the record.
Archived the day it published, unedited afterward. 13 editions and counting.
Iran diplomacy is fracturing. Two connected markets tell the story: the probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31 dropped 21 points to 49% on $95,675 of volume, while …
The world is repositioning around two major political shocks: France's presidential race and a U.S. Senate scandal. Simultaneously, dropout probability rocketed 55 points to 97% on…
The world is repositioning around Iran diplomacy — and betting the Strait of Hormuz crisis is over. Three connected markets tracking Hormuz shipping normalization dropped 4 to 8 po…
The world is repositioning around a Fed pause. $1.24M of real money pushed the probability of no rate change at the July meeting to 90%, up 10 points in 24 hours — the market is pr…
The world is repricing two major stories today: the Supreme Court and Middle East diplomacy. $109K pushed Justice Samuel Alito's retirement probability down 18 points to 14%, while…
The world is repositioning around Iran diplomacy — and betting it won't happen. $213K of real money pushed US-Iran diplomatic meeting probability down 10 points to 24% despite thre…
The world is repositioning around US-Iran diplomacy. $619K of real money pushed the probability of a diplomatic meeting by July 3 from 5% to 34% in 24 hours — the largest convictio…
The Strait of Hormuz is repricing as a sustained crisis. Three connected markets tracking shipping traffic through the strait dropped sharply on combined volume of $710K — the 60-s…
The world is repricing Iran risk downward — but the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint. Three connected markets tell the story: Hormuz traffic normalization dropped 9.5 points t…
The crypto chain tells a coherent story: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and related volatility markets all moved in the same direction within 24 hours. Bitcoin's June dip probability fell from…
The world is repositioning around Iran. $217K of real money pushed Strait of Hormuz transit probability up 26 points to 56% — the market is pricing increased likelihood that 60+ sh…
Meanwhile, Iran diplomacy is showing tentative signs of progress even as regional shipping risk climbs. US-Iran diplomatic meeting probability rose 19 points to 34% on $69K volume,…
The world is repositioning around two major regime shifts: Iran war powers and a crypto collapse. $180K of real money pushed Congress Iran war powers resolution probability from 2%…