The morning read.

Meanwhile, Iran diplomacy is showing tentative signs of progress even as regional shipping risk climbs. US-Iran diplomatic meeting probability rose 19 points to 34% on $69K volume, while Strait of Hormuz transit probability jumped 32 points to 78% on $212K. The market is pricing a fragile détente — talks are more likely, shipping lanes are expected to stay open, but conviction remains medium across both signals. Al-Monitor reports Trump backing diplomacy while vowing action if the deal falters. The money says diplomacy is gaining traction, but the news shows the path is anything but smooth.

The sharpest gap today: oil is pricing a collapse despite Iran shipping risk rising. Crude at 71% to hit $70 while Hormuz transit probability sits at 78% — if shipping lanes are expected to stay open, why is oil pricing a 30-point drop? The market is either pricing in demand destruction, or it's betting that the Iran peace process removes the geopolitical risk premium entirely. FreightWaves reports diesel falling as a peace deal takes shape, which supports the latter interpretation. But $83,798 of conviction on oil downside suggests traders see more than just peace — they see oversupply or weakening demand ahead.