The morning read.

The world is repositioning around Iran. $217K of real money pushed Strait of Hormuz transit probability up 26 points to 56% — the market is pricing increased likelihood that 60+ ships will transit on at least one day by June 30. Three sources reference delayed nuclear talks and worsening Lebanon clashes, yet the market moved sharply toward normal transit. At the same time, crude oil probability collapsed 29 points to 42% on $130K volume. The market is pricing two contradictory futures: Iran tension rising, oil prices falling.

This is the central tension in today's data. Hormuz — which handles 20% of global oil supply — repriced sharply toward disruption risk. Oil repriced sharply toward supply relief. Both moves happened on substantial volume ($217K and $130K respectively) with conviction scores above 0.40. The gap is mathematically incoherent: if Hormuz transit risk is rising, oil should be rising with it. Instead, the market is pricing a scenario where Iran tensions escalate but oil supply remains abundant — possibly because the "peace deal" referenced in freight news is offsetting Middle East risk, or because the market expects any Hormuz disruption to be brief and priced into oil futures already.

The rest of today's signals are thin. Ethereum jumped 44 points to 95% on just $11K volume — a 10% spread makes this noise, not signal. Alphabet's market cap position moved 41 points on $13K with no news coverage. UK political markets (Wes Streeting down 26 points, Bank of England up 31 points) moved on sub-$15K volume with no catalyst visible in our feeds. These are artifacts of thin order books, not information.