The morning read.

The world is repricing Iran risk downward — but the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint. Three connected markets tell the story: Hormuz traffic normalization dropped 9.5 points to 45% on $293K volume, daily transit probability fell 20 points to 36% on $138K, and Israel-Hezbollah peace prospects collapsed 12 points to just 2% on $192K. Together, $623K of real money says the region is stabilizing slower than headlines suggest. The Times of Israel reports "Hormuz traffic rebound returns oil to prewar rates" and Mint confirms "Iranian oil may return," yet the market is pricing a 55% chance that traffic does NOT normalize by July 31. That's a gap worth watching.

Bitcoin is holding firm above $58K despite June dip fears evaporating. The market that Bitcoin would fall to $57,500 in June dropped 17 points to 21% on $110K volume — a decisive repricing with just four days left in the month. CoinDesk notes "Infrastructure is the prevailing currency in digital assets," signaling institutional confidence. The crypto chain shows coordinated strength: the $58K floor is now priced at 93% (+10pp), while the $57,500 dip market collapsed. This is a sustained trend, not a one-day spike — the market has been climbing steadily as June closes without the predicted correction.

The AI regulatory environment is shifting fast. Anthropic's Claude Mythos 5 restoration jumped 64 points to 83% on thin volume ($28K), while TechCrunch reports "OpenAI limits GPT-5.6 rollout after government request" and Hacker News confirms "U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to 'trusted' US organizations." The market is pricing selective restoration to trusted organizations — not necessarily full public access — by June 30. But the volume is too thin to call this high conviction. The news says regulatory gates are opening for limited release; the money says maybe, but not with confidence.