How a case earns its place.

Every case on the Record passes the same mechanical selection, generated from our committed signal ledger with no hand-picking. These are the rules, exactly as the generator enforces them.

Selection rules

• Minimum move: The prediction market's implied probability must move at least 20 percentage points across the reprice window. Smaller moves are not shown as evidence.
• Lead window: Our flag must precede the move by 3 to 45 days. Longer “leads” on permanently-watched entities are not treated as notice.
• Baseline history: An entity must have been watched for at least 14 days before its flag counts — a flag raised near the start of our data has no baseline to be measured against and is excluded as a left-edge artifact.
• Cross-domain breadth: The flag must have appeared across at least 8 of our coverage domains on the detection day.
• On-subject evidence: At least one detection-day headline must actually be about the entity (word-boundary match), so the attention evidence is auditable on the page. Keyword mentions scattered across unrelated coverage do not qualify — entity ubiquity is not signal. Stated honestly: this establishes entity-level linkage (abnormal attention on X preceded movement in an X market), not an event-level causal chain — the detection-day story and the market may concern different developments about the same entity. An event-level gate is the named next tightening.
• Time to resolution: We parse each market's deadline from its own question. A case whose reprice window ends within 7 days of the deadline at an extreme price (below 5% or above 95%) is excluded: markets drift toward 0% or 100% near expiry, and we do not present expiry mechanics as foresight. Each case discloses days-to-resolution measured from the flag date.
• Event shocks: The move must be visible across the window, not delivered by a single terminal jump. A market that sat still and resolved on one surprise announcement is not evidence the world repriced toward our flag.
• One per event: At most one case per entity and one per underlying event family. Markets about the same event are correlated, and we do not present correlated questions as independent confirmations.
• No novelty markets: Handshake lengths, net-worth trackers, phrasing bets and similar entertainment markets are excluded even when they qualify mechanically.

Known limitations

• Cases are selected from qualifying rows, so this is a curated exhibit, not a random sample. The population-level question — do flagged markets move more often than comparable unflagged markets? — is the standing measurement behind the scenes, and cases are illustrations of it, not proof by themselves.
• Surviving cases are still correlated with one another (the same world events drive many markets); do not treat the case count as N independent trials.
• The dataset is pinned to a stated as-of date and refreshed monthly, so the newest possible case always lags by the length of its own reprice window.
• Prediction-market prices are the crowd's belief, cited as a public sensor — not our forecast, and never advice.

Reproducibility

The full case dataset — including each case’s day-by-day consensus trajectory, detection-day headlines, and provenance identifiers — ships with this site as machine-readable JSON. Each case card links its sources; the selection thresholds above are restated from the generator and drift-guarded by tests, so the page and the pipeline cannot silently diverge. For the population-level scoring — calibration curve, Brier score, log loss — see the calibration page.

Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes.