The morning read.

The Trump administration's Iran strategy is collapsing in real time. $364,810 of volume pushed the probability of a U.S.-announced end to the Iranian blockade down 16 points to 12% in 24 hours. Four connected markets tracking the Iran diplomatic timeline — blockade resolution, Hormuz agreement, diplomatic meetings, and sanctions relief — all fell sharply, with the Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement dropping 26.5 points to 32% despite thin volume. The money is pricing a diplomatic dead-end, not a breakthrough.

Oil markets are telling a different story. Yet Hormuz normalization by year-end dropped 9 points to 48% on $124,083 — the crowd is pricing sustained disruption through December. The gap is stark: oil is repricing upward while Iran diplomacy is repricing downward, and both moves are backed by real conviction. Cross-domain intelligence shows Iran appearing across 11 verticals and 88 sources today, with Hormuz specifically flagged in 7 verticals and 42 sources — this is system-wide repositioning, not a single-domain story.

The Iran regime opacity signal is flashing red. Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance probability collapsed 18.9 points to 9% on $59,102 volume. The market is pricing regime invisibility as the new normal, consistent with the diplomatic freeze. Meanwhile, South Carolina's Republican Senate primary saw $74,129 of volume push Darline Graham Nordone's first-round win probability down 8 points to 60% — the money is pricing a contested primary, not a clean sweep.

• The Biggest Consequence Of An AI IPO Isn’t The IPO Itself. It’s What Happens Afterward. — Crunchbase News
• Sunday shows preview: Iran-Hormuz deal hangs in balance; Trump, Dems look to midterms — The Hill News
• Trump's Board of Peace claims Gaza plan can end 'cycle of violence' — Daily Sabah economy
• Iran insists US must meet demands to reopen Hormuz, mulls fees — Daily Sabah economy