The morning read.

The world is repositioning around a fragile Iran détente. The Israel-Iran ceasefire market rocketed 31 points to 96%, while the US-Iran effective ceasefire climbed 30 points to 62%. Both moves came on high conviction (scores above 0.45) and substantial volume, signaling genuine belief that the current pause will hold through mid-August. The Strait of Hormuz normalization thesis is gaining traction alongside the ceasefire repricing: traffic returning to normal by year-end jumped 10 points to 58% on $263K volume, while the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by August 15 surged 29 points to 40% on $145K.

The ceasefire narrative is internally consistent but fragile. Airspace closure probabilities collapsed in tandem with the ceasefire surge — Israel closing its airspace by August 15 fell 12 points to 11%, and Iran full airspace closure dropped 18 points to 20%. The market is pricing a genuine de-escalation, not just a tactical pause. Yet the diplomatic meeting market (US-Iran talks by August 31) rose only 12 points to 44% on modest $53K volume, suggesting the crowd sees the ceasefire as operational rather than strategic. Sources are mixed: Al-Monitor reports Iran still controls the strait and is not seeking talks, while Tehran Times (state-aligned) frames consolidating military gains at the negotiating table as favorable to Iran. The money is betting on a pause, not a breakthrough.

The biggest gap in today's data: oil repriced sharply downward despite Hormuz normalization rising. WTI crude hitting $90 in August dropped 29 points to 54% on thin $28K volume — the market is pricing no supply shock even as Hormuz traffic normalization gains credibility. Oil Price notes "Hormuz Uncertainty Keeps Oil Markets on Edge," yet the prediction market is moving the opposite direction. Either the crowd believes alternative supply routes have already compensated, or this is a mispricing waiting to correct. The gap is wide enough to matter.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4 at 96% — The crowd is pricing near-certainty the pause holds for 48 more hours. The picture changes if this drops below 85% on another $100K+ of volume — that would signal the market sees imminent breakdown risk.