Senate: 27 days of notice.
We flagged rising Senate activity across 8 of our domains on May 3, 2026. The public consensus, read through one sensor we cite, still priced this question at 75.5%. Over the next 27 days the crowd's answer moved to 0.2%.
What our wire showed
Senate had been on our wire since Apr 4, 2026. On May 3, 2026 our watchers flagged it escalating across 8 domains at once — including AI Policy, Central Bank Digital Currency, Crypto DEFI, Drones Autonomous, Intelligence Surveillance. Breadth is the tell: one domain talking is a story, 8 domains moving together is a signal.
- House approves Senate-passed budget resolution for immigration enforcement funding - PwC
- Senate Judiciary Committee Advances Hawley's GUARD Act, Mandating ID Verification for AI Chatbot Users
- Trump signs stopgap FISA extension after Senate blocks long-term renewal - 930 WFMD Free Talk
- Emmer calls on Senate to pass anti-CBDC bill - Ripon Advance
19 tracked sources contributed to the flag that day; these headlines are stored verbatim in our detection ledger.
What the public consensus did next
The crowd was asked: "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?" Between May 5, 2026 and May 30, 2026 its collective answer moved from 75.5% likely to 0.2% likely.
Why this is evidence
The gap between our flag and the crowd’s reprice is 27 days. That gap is the product: attention spreading across domains before the public consensus finishes catching up. One case is an anecdote; the full record holds every qualifying case our append-only ledger has accrued, plus the flagged-vs-control regression behind the aggregate.
Mechanically selected from our append-only evidence ledger (cross_domain/evidence_portfolio.jsonl); case id fam:senate:will-the-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-may::will-the-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-may-31. Attention leading a reprice is an association, not advice — we cite the crowd’s price as a sensor; nothing here is a directional or trading claim.