China: 44 days of notice.
We flagged rising China activity across 44 of our domains on May 22, 2026. The public consensus, read through one sensor we cite, still priced this question at 48.5%. Over the next 44 days the crowd's answer moved to 16.5%.
What our wire showed
China had been on our wire since Apr 4, 2026. On May 22, 2026 our watchers flagged it escalating across 44 domains at once — including Aging Longevity, AI Policy, Australia Economy, Aztc Aasd, Batteries Storage. Breadth is the tell: one domain talking is a story, 44 domains moving together is a signal.
- Current status and challenges of colorectal cancer screening program in Guangzhou, China: a population-based study.
- Fierce Pharma Asia—Merck-Kelun ADC’s triple wins; Tools in China licensing deals; Takeda’s $885M antitrust loss
- China’s Home Field Advantage at WRC-27 Worries US Operators
- Boots on the moon needed to beat 'belligerent' China: Mitchell Institute
92 tracked sources contributed to the flag that day; these headlines are stored verbatim in our detection ledger.
What the public consensus did next
The crowd was asked: "Will China have an Ebola case in 2026?" Between May 23, 2026 and Jul 5, 2026 its collective answer moved from 48.5% likely to 16.5% likely.
Why this is evidence
The gap between our flag and the crowd’s reprice is 44 days. That gap is the product: attention spreading across domains before the public consensus finishes catching up. One case is an anecdote; the full record holds every qualifying case our append-only ledger has accrued, plus the flagged-vs-control regression behind the aggregate.
Mechanically selected from our append-only evidence ledger (cross_domain/evidence_portfolio.jsonl); case id fam:china:will-china-have-an-ebola-case-in::will-china-have-an-ebola-case-in-2026. Attention leading a reprice is an association, not advice — we cite the crowd’s price as a sensor; nothing here is a directional or trading claim.